The impact of international diversification on credit scores: Evidence from the UK

Despite the great deal of previous research into international diversification, we know little about the impact of international diversification on firms’ credit scores. Drawing upon the resource-based view and transaction cost economics, we examine the relationship between international diversification and credit scores by using a large sample of 6,557 UK firms between 2016 and 2017. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between international diversification and firms’ credit scores, indicating that the effect of international diversification on credit scores is initially positive but becomes negative with over-diversification. In addition, we find that R&D intensity positively moderates the relationship between international diversification and credit score, implying that the credit scores of highly diversified firms improve as they increase their investment in R&D. Further analysis suggests that a firm’s credit score becomes less dependent on international diversification for large firms, firms in concentrated industries, firms in the manufacturing sector, and firms distant from key metropolitan areas, such as London.     

基于K-S检验与距离相关分析的网络借贷信用评价指标体系构建

网络借贷作为一种新型互联网金融模式,提升了金融资源使用效率,缓解了小企业融资难的困局。构建合理的网络借贷信用评价指标体系,从而对网络借贷的潜在风险及时甄别与预防,对互联网金融健康持续发展意义重大。本文根据K-S检验与距离相关分析相结合,筛选对借款客户违约状态甄别能力强的指标,建立了网络借贷信用评价指标体系,通过P2P网络借贷(peer to peer lending,个人对个人借贷)平台LendingClub交易数据进行实证研究,结果表明:不仅借款金额、借款利率等借款标的特征对借贷者违约具有显著相关性,借款者年龄等个人特征、借款者年收入等财务特征以及借款者违约次数等信用特征均对借贷者违约风险产生显著影响。投资者在出借资金时,往往青睐于已婚、年龄适中、具有一定工作经历、历史违约次数较少的借款人。因此,风险监管部门应构建网络借贷违约风险评估模型,对P2P平台进行风险监测,同时建立关键信息共享机制,融合多源数据,明确审查范围,实现P2P网络借贷行业健康有序发展。     

High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision

We examine whether professional forecasters incorporate high-frequency information about credit conditions when revising their economic forecasts. Using a mixed data sampling regression approach, we find that daily credit spreads have significant predictive ability for monthly forecast revisions of output growth, at both the aggregate and individual forecast levels. The relationships are shown to be notably strong during ‘bad’ economic conditions, which suggests that forecasters anticipate more pronounced effects of credit tightening during economic downturns, indicating an amplification effect of financial developments on macroeconomic aggregates. The forecasts do not incorporate all financial information received in equal measures, implying the presence of information rigidities in the incorporation of credit spread information.     

Payday loans and consumer financial health

The annualized interest rate for a payday loan often exceeds 10 times that of a typical credit card, yet this market grew immensely in the 1990s and 2000s, elevating concerns about the risk payday loans pose to consumers and whether payday lenders target minority neighborhoods. This paper employs individual credit record data, and Census data on payday lender store locations, to assess these concerns. Taking advantage of several state law changes since 2006 and, following previous work, within-state-year differences in access arising from proximity to states that allow payday loans, I find little to no effect of payday loans on credit scores, new delinquencies, or the likelihood of overdrawing credit lines. The analysis also indicates that neighborhood racial composition has little influence on payday lender store locations conditional on income, wealth and demographic characteristics.     

The ties that bind: Bank relationships and small business lending

The importance of bank relationships for small firms’ ability to raise external finance is well-documented, yet the mechanism through which relationships improve access to capital markets has received little empirical attention. This paper uses hand-collected, proprietary data from a mid-sized bank in the United States to identify the channels that strengthen the relationship between a small business and its bank. In contrast to earlier work that focuses on the role of relationships in alleviating information and incentive problems in lending, I find that the source of value in relationship banking is not limited to enhanced monitoring. Exploiting a unique feature of this dataset, I examine two channels of relationship strength that directly measure the stream of non-lending profits generated from (1) the non-credit services cross-sold to the borrower, and (2) the additional bank clients referred by the borrower. I document that non-lending profitability empirically determines the risk-adjusted terms of lending. In models of loan price that already include both the bank’s proprietary risk rating and traditional risk proxies, non-lending profits significantly improve explanatory power and account for up to half of the total explained variation. Conditional on risk profile, a one-standard deviation increase in aggregate non-lending profits lowers the loan interest rate by 32 basis points and increases access to credit by 26%.     

旅游高职院校教学改革思考

随着社会经济的发展,各行各业对实用性人才的需求日益增大,因此,深入教学改革,提高旅游高职教育教学的质量问题慢慢凸显出来。本文就深入教学改革,对影响旅游高职教育教学质量的因素进行分析并提出相应的对策。     

Credit market failure intervention: Do government sponsored small business credit programs enrich poorer areas?

Using local market employment rates as our measure of economic performance, we find a positive and significant correlation between the average annual level of employment in a local market and the level of SBA guaranteed lending in that local market. Furthermore, the intensity of this correlation is much larger in low-income markets. Indeed, our results suggest that this correlation is positive and significant only in low-income markets. This result has important implications for public policy in general and SBA guaranteed lending in particular.

FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets

In this paper, we examine the various links among foreign direct investment (FDI), financial markets, and economic growth. We explore whether countries with better financial systems can exploit FDI more efficiently. Empirical analysis, using cross-country data between 1975 and 1995, shows that FDI alone plays an ambiguous role in contributing to economic growth. However, countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI. The results are robust to different measures of financial market development, the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth, and consideration of endogeneity.     

An Empirical Investigation of Trade Credit Demand

This paper investigates the motivations for a firm's demand for trade credit. Demand for credit is modelled as a function of transaction costs motivations, financing motivations, operational considerations, seller compliance issues and supplier marketing, whilst controlling for the firm's business environment and for firm characteristics such as size and industry. This paper builds on previous studies by considering a wider range of factors that can affect trade credit demand holistically on a single sample. It appears that the use of trade credit is widespread, and that it is generally perceived as an important short term financing option, although the availability of trade credit is not a major influence on supplier choice. The level of a firm's trade credit demand is found to be significantly influenced by transaction costs, financing, operational issues, marketing activities by suppliers, the firm's investment in trade debtors and firm size.     

信用效应认识的深化与信用秩序的恢复和增强

市场经济从本质上讲是信用经济.在市场经济条件下,信用是最基本的社会经济关系,是整个社会经济得以维系和发展的基础.随着中国经济改革的逐步深入,特别是在加入WTO后,信用的作用逐步显现出来.但是,人们对信用效应的认识还有待深化,尤其是对信用关系紊乱可能带来的负面作用认识得不多,而对信用的积极作用往往习惯于借鉴美欧现成的信用模式.本文从深化对信用效应的认识入手,分析了信用秩序混乱的形成原因,并在简要评价我国信用基本状况的基础上,提出了恢复和增强我国信用秩序的建议.